UNESCO reported[1] that in 2021 the number of primary school age children out-of-school was 67 million globally. More than half of these children were living in sub-Saharan Africa. In this region, 20% of all primary school age children, 33% of all lower secondary school age adolescents, and 48% of all upper secondary school age youth remain out of school. While these percentages are slowly decreasing, the strong population growth means that the absolute number of children out-of-school is actually rising.
The UN projects[2] that between 2022 and 2050, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to almost double, surpassing 2 billion by the late 2040s. According to UNICEF[3], in 2050 more than 1 in 3 of the world’s children will be living in this region.
Sub-Saharan Africa truly is the world’s fountain of youth, and all these new young people will need an education. UNICEF estimates[4] that to meet the demand, the region will need to add more than 4 million primary school teachers by 2030, with well over half of these in its most populous subregion, Eastern Africa. Without considerable investment in education, out-of-school rates will inevitably rise.
High out-of-school rates are not the only challenge; low quality learning outcomes are also a major issue. In 2019, the World Bank and UNESCO started measuring learning poverty, which is defined at the share of children who cannot read and understand a simple text by age 10. The learning poverty rate is a combination of out-of-school rates and failure to attain minimum proficiency levels in elementary school.
The World Bank estimates[5] that in 2022 learning poverty in sub-Saharan Africa rose to 89%, which means that only 1 in 10 ten-year old children was able read and understand simple texts. The above average was based on data from half of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, covering about half of the school-age population in the region. Missing countries include Nigeria, Tanzania, and Kenya. Using data from a situation analysis by UNICEF[6], Kenya’s learning poverty rate in 2017 can be estimated to be 74%.
In 2021, UNICEF[7] completed a global education pathway analysis that shows what happens to children who enter primary school and where their education tends to go off path. The figure below shows the results for the West/Central and Eastern/Southern African regions.
Given the high growth rate in the region, these figures are bound to worsen unless significant action is taken. There is not a moment to lose!
[1] Source: UNESCO (2022) “FACTSHEET 62 / POLICY PAPER 48 • New estimation confirms out-of-school population is growing in sub-Saharan Africa.” See also: link.
[2] Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2022) “World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results.” See also: link.
[3] Source: UNICEF (2015) “Children in Africa – Key Statistics on child survival, protection and development.” See also: link.
[4] Source: UNICEF (2017) “Children in Africa – Key Statistics on child survival and population.” See also: link.
[5] Source: World Bank (2022) “The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update.” See also: link.
[6] Estimate based on figures taken from paragraphs 28 and 32 of the executive summary of: UNICEF (2018) “Situation Analysis of Children and Women in Kenya 2017.” See also: link.
[7] Source: UNICEF (2021) “How are children progressing through school? Education Pathway Analysis.” See also: link.